My Opinion: India China Border issues are creating economic and geopolitical issues that may lead to a hot war in our time ! Americans are taking on to much debt to try and live a normal life , mainly in the Blue states of America ! Retail sector is being taxed to death from small to medium to big enterprise ! – Mike Martins
Are People Really Leaving California Over Housing Costs? , India plans to block China on the border, Thousands in Barcelona demand freedom for independence activists, IMF warns against Canada’s debt levels, Americans have more debt than ever — and it’s creating an economic trap, Retailers should get ready for another stressful year in 2018,
As of June, US households were more than half a trillion dollars deeper in debt than they were a year earlier, according to the latest figures from the Federal Reserve. Total household debt now totals $12.84 trillion – also, incidentally, around two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).
The proportion of overall debt that was delinquent in the second quarter was steady at 4.8%, but the New York Fed warned over transitions of credit card balances into delinquency, which “ticked up notably.”
Here’s the thing: Unlike government debt, which can be rolled over continuously, consumer loans actually need to be paid back. And despite low official interest rates from the Federal Reserve, those often do not trickle down to many financial products like credit cards and small business loans.
Michael Lebowitz, co-founder of market analysis firm 720 Global, says the US economy is already dangerously close to the edge.
“Most consumers, especially those in the bottom 80%, are tapped out,” he told Business Insider. “They have borrowed about as much as they can. Servicing this debt will act like a wet towel on economic growth for years to come. Until wages can grow faster than our true costs of inflation, this problem will only worsen.”
The International Monetary Fund devotes two chapters of its latest Global Financial Stability Report to the issue of household debt. It finds that, rather intuitively, high debt levels tend to make economic downturns deeper and more prolonged.
“Increases in household debt consistently [signal] higher risks when initial debt levels are already high,” the IMF says.
Nonetheless, the results indicate that the threshold levels for household debt increases being associated with negative macro outcomes start relatively low, at about 30% of GDP.
Clearly, America’s already well past that point. As households become more indebted, the Fund says, future GDP growth and consumption decline and unemployment rises relative to their average values.
“Changes in household debt have a positive contemporaneous relationship to real GDP growth and a negative association with future real GDP growth,” the report says.
Specifically, the Fund says a 5% increase in household debt to GDP over a three-year period leads to a 1.25% fall in real GDP growth three years into the future.